TWIR Thanksgiving Edition
Hey Friends,
Happy Thanksgiving! This edition of TWIR is on the house. I’m extremely grateful for the opportunity to share my thoughts with you and couldn’t be more thankful for the support of this readership and community.
As the busiest stretch of the retail calendar kicks into high gear, this week offers a rare moment to pause and take stock. Thanksgiving is always a reminder of what grounds this industry: the people, store teams, supply chain partners, technologists, merchants, and frontline associates, who make the retail engine run even as consumer expectations rise and the pace accelerates.
Most of all, thank you for reading, sharing, and being part of this growing community. Wishing you a warm, restful, and successful holiday weekend. Today we are covering part two of my holiday predictions and look at all things Black Friday.
So, sit back, enjoy some primetime football and maybe a nice beverage and read this as you contemplate seconds.
Let’s get into it…..
In case you missed part one of my holiday retail outlook, give it a read at the link below.
The retail Superbowl is upon us, once those leftovers are packed up today all focus shifts towards the final push of the year. Consumer sentiment remains mixed, AI continues reshaping the shopping journey, and operational pressures are forcing retailers to rethink how they approach the season.
Here’s What to Expect
Higher-income shoppers are expected to drive most of the seasonal spending growth, while middle-income consumers stay cautious amid inflation and elevated interest rates. This will create a bifurcated holiday: premium categories like beauty, luxury, and consumer tech should perform strongly, while value channels compete aggressively for deal-driven buyers. At the same time, the holiday calendar began even earlier. Amazon’s Fall Prime Event and expanded October promotions from Walmart and Target pushed a record share of consumers to start shopping before Halloween, reducing November and December’s influence on the season.
Technology will take center stage, with generative AI becoming a visible part of the retail customer experience. Retailers are preparing to spotlight AI-powered gift guides, personalized baskets, smarter search, and virtual try-on in marketing campaigns. Operationally, expect earlier shipping cutoffs as UPS and FedEx navigate capacity challenges, pushing retailers to lean harder on BOPIS and same-day fulfillment through stores. Electronics should lead gifting thanks to a new wave of low-cost AI devices, while core apparel remains heavily promotional.
Apparel Will Be Promotional—Except for Occasionwear
Retailers are sitting on elevated inventories of casual and core apparel, which will drive widespread discounts throughout basics and everyday categories. Fast-fashion chains and mid-tier brands will likely lead with aggressive bundles and 30–50% off promotions to clear stock. However, occasionwear and event-driven pieces—think cocktail dresses, outerwear for parties, and formal menswear tied to weddings or holiday events—are expected to hold stronger margins. Early signals suggest 2026’s busy social calendar is already influencing buying trends, with retailers cautiously limiting discounts on these higher-ticket items.
Toys Will Be Driven by Fewer, Bigger Franchises
Toy sales are consolidating around proven IPs, including Disney’s tentpole franchises, gaming-related brands, and viral TikTok hits. Retailers anticipate fewer runaway shortages due to better forecasting and production planning, but “hot ticket” items will still sell out quickly in the early weeks. Specialty and independent toy brands may struggle to capture attention amid blockbuster franchises dominating holiday wish lists.
Grocery Will Quietly Power the Season
With social gatherings taking precedence over gifts for many households, grocery and alcohol categories are positioned for steady, dependable growth. Retailers are leaning into AI-curated holiday meal bundles, pre-packaged party kits, and expanded private-label options. These strategies aim to drive larger baskets and increase shopper convenience while capturing a bigger share of seasonal spend.
Returns Will Spike—And Policies Will Tighten
Earlier shopping windows and more online purchases mean returns will shift later into January. Mid-tier and value-focused retailers are expected to enforce stricter return windows, designated drop-off hubs, or even return fees for high-volume items. Shoppers may face reduced flexibility compared to prior seasons when free returns were widely offered.
The Real Story: Retailers Will Spend More on Efficiency Than Discounts
While promotions attract attention, the true differentiator this holiday will be operational efficiency. Investments in AI-driven forecasting, RFID inventory visibility, labor optimization, and automation will help retailers reduce waste, meet demand, and maintain margins. Retailers who lean on tech to streamline operations are better positioned to compete than those relying solely on deeper discounts.
The good news……We don’t have to wait very long to find out!
Top Retailers & Their Black Friday Strategies
Black Friday still remains one of the biggest shopping events of the year, with retailers and consumers alike placing high stakes on the deals season.
This year, personalization and AI are central to retail strategy, with dynamic pricing, tailored offers, and chatbots guiding consumers through a more frictionless, data-driven experience.
Amazon is leaning heavily on big tech this Black Friday, rolling out early deals on its own devices, like Echo and Fire TV, alongside Apple products. The strategy targets tech-savvy shoppers looking for high-ticket gifts while driving Prime subscriptions and app engagement. Expect deep discounts on bundles and lightning deals to create urgency throughout the holiday weekend.
Walmart is doubling down on “Everyday Low Prices” with early Black Friday promotions that span electronics, home goods, and toys. The retailer is offering both in-store and online deals to capture both convenience and urgency. Walmart’s strategy emphasizes broad appeal, making it a one-stop shop for holiday essentials.
Target is focusing on exclusive bundles and in-store experiences, alongside digital deals for same-day pickup. Apparel and home categories are particularly highlighted, reflecting Target’s strength in curated gift offerings. Target’s approach blends convenience with personalized offers for loyal shoppers.
Best Buy is putting technology front and center, promoting early access to gaming consoles, laptops, and smart home devices. The company is also leveraging its membership program for early-bird access to deals. By highlighting high-demand electronics, Best Buy aims to drive both traffic and conversion during the critical holiday window.
Apple is keeping its Black Friday approach minimalistic, focusing on gift cards with device purchases rather than broad discounts. The strategy encourages purchases of iPhones, Macs, and accessories while maintaining premium brand positioning. Apple relies on its loyal customer base and product desirability to drive sales without heavy markdowns.
Macy’s is emphasizing fashion and home décor, offering tiered discounts and bundled deals. The retailer also leverages loyalty perks and early access to drive repeat visits. Macy’s Black Friday strategy aims to combine traditional in-store traffic with digital convenience for a hybrid approach.
Kohl’s is leveraging Kohl’s Cash promotions and layered discounts to entice shoppers, particularly in apparel and household items. The strategy encourages repeat visits and higher basket sizes, using digital marketing and app notifications to maximize engagement.
Black Friday Discounts — Quick List
J.Crew — Up to 82% off https://www.jcrew.com/
Lululemon — 30–60% off select items https://shop.lululemon.com/
Banana Republic — Up to 40% off https://bananarepublic.gap.com/
Everlane — Up to 50% off https://www.everlane.com/
Madewell — Up to 40% off https://www.madewell.com/
Tory Burch — Up to 45% off https://www.toryburch.com/en-us/
Net-A-Porter (Designer) — Up to 50% off https://www.net-a-porter.com/en-us/
Nordstrom — Up to 50% off apparel https://www.nordstrom.com
Quince — Up to 30% off (350+ styles) https://www.quince.com/
Abercrombie & Fitch — Select items 30–40% off https://www.abercrombie.com/shop/us
adidas — Savings up to 60% off Hoodies, apparel 30–50% off https://www.adidas.com/us
DICK’S Sporting Goods (DSG line) — shoes, clothing up to 50% off, Leggings as low as $13.98 https://www.dickssportinggoods.com/
H&M — Basics from $11.99; seasonal markdowns https://www2.hm.com/en_us/index.html
Old Navy — Tops around $11–$15; widespread 40–50% off https://oldnavy.gap.com/
Analysis / Why These Matter This Black Friday
High Discount Depth: Many apparel brands are offering very steep discounts (40%–70%) — especially on basics, outerwear, and activewear.
Range of Retailers: Deals are coming from both fast fashion (H&M) and premium / designer (Mr Porter, Paul Smith, Tory Burch), which means Black Friday could be a great time for a broad spectrum of shoppers.
Direct-to-Consumer Strength: Brands like Quince are leaning into direct-to-consumer with high-quality fabrics at big Black Friday savings.
Active & Outdoor: Sporting / outdoor brands (via retailers like Dick’s) are offering large discounts — perfect for cold-weather wardrobe building.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone