Holiday 2025 Retail Forecast: A Season of Caution and Competition

Cautious consumers, higher costs, and AI innovation are redefining what success looks like for retailers this holiday season

The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be one of the most complex in years. Rising shipping surcharges, consumer fatigue, and cautious spending are reshaping the retail landscape. While overall sales are expected to rise modestly — likely in the low-to-mid single digits — the gains will be uneven across categories and channels.

Retailers that thrive will be those that read the signals early: lean inventories, extended promotions, and data-driven personalization will define success. For others, heavy discounting and logistical strain could erode margins during what’s traditionally the most profitable stretch of the year.