This Week in Retail #106
Hey Friends,
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Today we look at the latest in Bentonville, Christmas pop-ups, how the company you keep controls your brand image. We are also going to analyze the National Retail Federation’s holiday spending predictions…..Let’s get into it.
Last week we saw a change in the C-suite at Walmart with John Furner set to replace Doug McMillen. The announcement triggered a cautious but noticeably negative market reaction. Shares initially fell roughly 3% in pre-market trading as investors processed the earlier-than-expected transition, before recovering somewhat to close down about 0.6% for the day. Analysts noted that while Furner is widely viewed as a logical and capable successor with deep operational experience, the timing of the announcement introduced uncertainty about continuity during a period of heightened competition and margin pressure in retail. Overall, the market’s response reflected a mix of confidence in Walmart’s bench strength and concern about leadership change at one of the industry’s most closely watched bellwethers.
I wrote more about the changing of the guard here:
Spirit is extending its seasonal retail strategy well beyond Halloween with the largest rollout of Spirit Christmas to date. The company is opening 30 pop-up stores for the 2025 holiday season, up sharply from eight last year, with locations concentrated across the Northeast and Great Lakes regions. Several Spirit Halloween storefronts will flip directly into Spirit Christmas, allowing the retailer to maximize temporary leases and keep seasonal momentum going.
Each location features a more immersive concept than in past years, anchored by a new “Peppermint Village” experience filled with interactive décor, themed displays, and letter-writing stations for kids. A new partnership with Cherry Hill Programs adds Santa meet-and-greets, photo packages, and personalized video messages in select stores — transforming Spirit Christmas from a simple seasonal shop into a holiday destination. Merchandise this year skews heavily toward novelty and décor, including inflatables, animatronics, gifts, apparel, and stocking-stuffers. Spirit is capitalizing on underused retail real estate and extending its seasonal brand equity, while also creating a competitive new option in holiday décor and gifting. If the concept resonates with shoppers, Spirit Christmas could become a permanent second season for the company, but the rapid growth also introduces inventory and staffing risks typical of short-cycle retail. Overall, Spirit’s move reflects the rising value of experiential formats and the continued blurring of traditional retail seasons.
IKEA has been piloting and expanding its Buy Back & Resell program as part of a broader push toward becoming a circular, low-waste business by 2030. The initiative allows customers to bring back gently used IKEA furniture—mainly non-upholstered pieces like bookcases, tables, desks, and chairs—in exchange for store credit. After an online estimate and an in-store inspection, IKEA issues a refund card and resells the furniture in its “As-Is” section at a discount. While early pilots launched in select stores such as Conshohocken, PA, the program has steadily expanded across the U.S. and internationally, now operating in dozens of markets. IKEA has reported hundreds of thousands of returned items annually through these circular programs. Alongside buy-back, IKEA is also testing a peer-to-peer marketplace, IKEA Pre-Owned, where customers can list used IKEA furniture for direct sale, sometimes earning a bonus if they take payment as store credit. These initiatives help reduce waste, extend the life of products, and keep more shoppers in the IKEA ecosystem, though challenges remain…..including limited categories of accepted products, lower-than-expected valuations, and the inconvenience of transporting fully assembled furniture.
Amazon is launching its Black Friday Week for 2025 starting Thursday November 20 and running through Monday December 1, offering “millions” of deals across home, electronics, beauty, apparel and more. The retailer also highlighted that some of these deals are already live, with discounts up to 80% on items like AirPods, vacuums, tights and holiday décor. By kicking off its holiday-event early and across an extended period, Amazon is reinforcing the trend of season-stretching promotions, putting pressure on other retailers to match timing and depth of offers and signaling that the holiday shopping window is already well underway.
A little comeback momentum for Dillard’s as the retailer reported Q3 results showing a 3 % year-over-year increase in total retail sales (and comps) to about $1.4 billion, and net income rising to approximately $129.8 million from $124.6 million in the year-ago period. Gross margin widened slightly. The company credited strong performance in core apparel and home/off-price categories rather than big promotional or gimmick-led tactics. Dillard’s ability to grow modestly through core product strength and margin discipline stands out. It suggests that “retail basics” (right assortment, full-price sell-through, margin control) may be increasingly critical.
Shoe Carnival’s board voted unanimously to change its corporate name to Shoe Station Group (subject to shareholder approval in June 2026) and to convert more of its store fleet under the Shoe Station banner. The company expects over 90 % of its stores to operate as Shoe Station by the end of fiscal 2028. The rebranding is projected to generate approximately $20 million in annual cost savings and reduce inventory investment by 20–25 % by end of FY 2027. A shift toward a stronger, more consistent retail banner (Shoe Station) believed to be better-positioned for growth, margin expansion and operational efficiency. For retailers, it highlights how consolidating brands and streamlining store fleets can be a key lever in a challenging environment.
Performance running-brand On reported that despite raising U.S. prices in July, in part due to tariffs, customer demand has held up strongly. Its Executive Co-Chairman noted that its upscale customer base “are not price sensitive,” and On intends to sell at full price in the upcoming holiday season rather than relying heavily on markdowns. The statement signals confidence that premium consumers will absorb cost-driven price hikes, which could embolden other apparel/footwear brands to protect margins rather than chase volume by discounting.
Under Armour announced it will end its decade-long partnership with NBA star Stephen Curry and spin off the Curry Brand business, as the company expands its restructuring efforts. The final Curry-branded shoe release is scheduled for February 2026.
This is not a move I am a fan of……Strategically, it signals a shift toward tighter cost control and renewed focus on the core Under Armour brand, with the company adding about $95 million in additional restructuring charges as part of a broader plan now totaling up to $255 million. While management insists the separation won’t materially hurt profitability, the company is already projecting a GAAP operating loss for fiscal 2026, underscoring the financial risk if cost savings don’t materialize or if its basketball business underperforms. The breakup also removes a major marketing asset: Curry has been central to Under Armour’s identity and credibility in basketball, and losing his influence could diminish brand appeal at a time when UA is fighting to stay relevant against stronger competitors. At the same time, Curry’s independence opens the door for him to partner with other brands or expand Curry Brand on his own terms, potentially creating future competition. When you compare Curry’s legacy vs. the remaining UA athletes, its a pretty wide comparison.
Operationally, the split simplifies Under Armour’s portfolio, but it also reduces control over key intellectual property, product development, and community initiatives previously tied to Curry. Ultimately, the decision reflects a high-stakes bet on simplification and efficiency, one that could strengthen Under Armour’s foundation if the turnaround succeeds, but that also heightens the risks if demand, execution, or brand momentum falters.
And finally……The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting a milestone for this year’s holiday season: retail sales during November and December are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever, with year-over-year growth of about 3.7 % to 4.2 % (versus $976 billion and 4.3 % growth last year). hat milestone reflects a continuation of consumer spending momentum, even amid macro risk.
Yet at the same time, a new survey by Rocket Mortgage and Redfin shows notable consumer belt-tightening: 28 % of Americans say they are pulling back on holiday decorating budgets, and 26 % say they are spending less on gifts this year.
Some Implications for Retailers:
Mixed signals: big totals, but selective spending. The $1 trillion-plus forecast signals that aggregate spending remains healthy; however, the survey data imply a divergence: while spending may rise overall, it’s increasingly being concentrated in essential categories (gifts) and being pared back in ancillary spend (decor).
Margin pressure and discount emphasis. The NRF emphasizes that inflation, tariffs and unemployment remain headwinds. Retailers may find that consumers demand more deals or trade down product tiers even as volume remains stable, which could compress margins unless managed carefully.
Inventory and assortment strategy becomes critical. With some consumers reducing spend on decorations and gifts, retailers may need to rethink how much “extra” inventory they carry (e.g., décor items, impulse-gift assortments) and lean heavier into core gift categories or value tiers.
High-income vs. mass-market divide widens. Survey responses suggest that heavier spending is likely among households with children or higher incomes, while other segments are more cautious. The diverging behavior means segmentation will matter: value messaging, tiered product lines, and differentiated store formats may resonate more.
Timing and fulfillment may matter more than ever. The survey reveals that consumers are spending less or delaying in some areas because of larger cost pressures (tariffs, inflation, job uncertainty). Retailers who offer early value, flexible payment, omnichannel fulfillment and clear deal structure may capture more of the cautious shopper.
Decorations may be a soft category. The 28% pull-back on décor is an early warning: discretionary spend on home embellishment may decline even if gift-centric spend holds up. Retailers oriented toward home décor or seasonal displays should consider tighter inventory, deeper discount lanes, or bundling strategies to maintain turn.
That’s all for today folks…..Make it a great week